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A hypothetical fall of the regime doesn’t guarantee an automatic transition to democracy. If Putin is out by 2024, we might get a military dictatorship for a short period, and no elections. But in case we do have democratic elections in 2024, the new president will most likely be anti-war. The war isn’t really popular, especially since mobilization has begun. Even pro-Kremlin polling agencies show However, the pro-Western orientation of a new president is unlikely. Anti-Western feeling amoung the public is as high as ever. Even russian liberals are bitter towards USA and Europe for the sanctions. There is a perception that sanctions hurt urban liberal people the most, while Putin’s elite still manage to evade their effect. A democratically elected leader of Russia will be first and foremost pro-Russia. And secondly, he will show gratitude to the countries that helped Russia in difficult times. China, India, Central Asian countries, etc.